A New and Old Conflict

After over a decade of being not only a failed state, but being a state in name only due to lawlessness, anarchy, and complete absence of government functions, Somalia is on the brink of causing an new, and potentially devastating, regional conflict.

Recently, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), a group of Islamic jurists, attempted to seize control of the country from warlords, impose order, and attempt to rebuild the destroyed country. While UIC has restored order in some parts to the anarchy-exhausted country, the possible specter of Taliban-like rule in the Horn of Africa and a possible terrorist safe haven, including for al-Qaeda, has raised the stakes. Actions by the UIC have resulted in a response by Ethiopia, the regions military powerhouse, which has a western-backed secular government. Ethiopia has sent either military advisors or troops (depending upon which reports are to be believed – Ethiopian or Somali) into Somalia to support the rival interim government (Transitional Federal Government) based in Baidoa, while the likelihood of a clash between the interim government forces and UIC militias increases every day and tens of thousands of refugees flee for safety.

Due to Ethiopia’s involvement in Somali affairs, UIC has formally declared a jihad on Ethiopia and called on Ethiopians to overthrow the secular non-Muslim government and form a government reflective of the country’s significant Muslim population. Ethiopia has responded by saying that the country is “technically…at war” with the “jihadist” Islamic Court. At the same time, Eritrea, which has a long-standing conflict with Ethiopia, has mobilized troops near the Somali border.

The US State Department has anticipated that clashes just between the UIC and government interim forces could bring in as many as twelve countries in the region into the conflict. The next round of negotiations between the UIC and the TFG are scheduled to take place on October 30th, with the likelihood of failed talks leading directly to conflict and possibly a regional war. The U.S. may very soon face a wide spread regional conflict with terrorism concerns in the Horn of Africa, if tensions are not cooled and order restored. Somalia has simmered under lawlessness and lack of attention since the deaths of eighteen U.S. soldiers in the streets of Mogadisu in 1993, but it could now take down the security of the whole East Africa region.